NBA best bets: Expert picks for Knicks vs. Pacers and Nuggets vs. Timberwolves

Pacers vs. Knicks

Sunday, May 19, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Donte DiVincenzo Over 17.5 Points (-108, DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

Donte DiVincenzo got a bit of his rhythm back in Game 6 when he scored 17 points with three made 3s. It was a significant bounce-back from his seven- and eight-point performances in Games 4 and 5.

In Game 7, DiVincenzo should get as much run as he can handle, especially with Josh Hart ailing. Even if Hart and OG Anunoby are able to play, their roles are not ones that necessarily would encroach on DiVincenzo's minutes.

DiVincenzo is giving the Knicks valuable minutes, but he also is getting the volume in return. In Games 4, 5 and 6 he barely saw minutes in the fourth quarter — some due to poor performance and some due to blowouts. Despite that, he still took 13, 14 and 14 shots in those three games. He has taken at least 13 shots in every game during this series.

When DiVincenzo has taken 13 shots this season, he has scored at least 18 points in 71% of games while averaging 22.4 points per game. I expect DiVincenzo to maintain this volume, and with Indiana trying to force the ball out of Jalen Brunson’s hands, he should see plenty of opportunities.

Pick: Donte DiVincenzo Over 17.5 Points (-108)

Pacers vs. Knicks

Pacers Moneyline (+130, DraftKings)

By Braxton Reynolds

The home team has won every game in this series, but I expect Indiana to prevail on the road here.

New York enters this contest at a significant disadvantage because of its injuries. Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson and Bojan Bogdanović are all out. If Josh Hart and OG Anunoby can suit up, then they will likely be severely compromised. However, should they miss the contest, the Knicks are essentially down to four starter-caliber players. Plus, fatigue will be worth monitoring for Jalen Brunson.

As for the matchup, Indiana's elite offense has produced a whopping 120.9 points per 100 possessions this series. They have generated wide open 3-point attempts with ease and avoided costly turnovers. Their shot profile lends itself to superior shot quality, which could be massive in a Game 7 when the pressure mounts. With Hart ailing or out, Indiana may control the glass on both ends to a higher degree too.

Pick: Pacers Moneyline (+130)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Sunday, May 19, 8 p.m. ET, TNT
Nuggets 1H -2.5 (DraftKings)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

The Wolves handed the Nuggets one of the biggest blowout losses in playoff elimination game history, winning 115-70 in a game in which the defending champs barely seemed to show up. After an early 9-2 run, the Wolves ripped off a 20-0 run and it was pretty much over from there.

That’s exactly why I’m betting on the Nuggets to come out strong in Game 7. Since the 2016 playoffs, home teams off a double-digit road loss are 91-46-4 ATS in the first half for 26.7% ROI. If we look at just Game 7, that improves to 11-1 since 2016 (76% ROI) and 18-5 since 2005 (50.2% ROI).

I think the Nuggets close this series out, but let’s take the first half to play the stronger trend.

Pick: Nuggets 1H -2.5

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Christian Braun Over 7.5 Points + Rebounds (-135, BetMGM)

By Joe Dellera

We keep betting this line, and although he missed in Game 6, the blowout severely limited his minutes. Braun has been instrumental for the Nuggets this series as a primary defender of Anthony Edwards and his motor has been incredible on both sides of the floor.

When Braun has played 20+ minutes this season, he has an 88% hit rate on this prop while averaging 14.1 PR per game. While the scoring chances may remain a bit limited for Braun in a Game 7, all he needs is a few layups or an open 3. This series, he has exceeded 7.5 PR in 4-of-6 games and I expect him to put his imprint on this Game 7 as well.

Pick: Christian Braun Over 7.5 Points + Rebounds (-135)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Jamal Murray Alt Under 20.5 Points (-135, DraftKings)

By Braxton Reynolds

Minnesota boasts a stable of elite point-of-attack defenders that have given Jamal Murray fits all series. Additionally, a nagging calf injury has sapped some of Murray's burst and creation potential.

As a result, Murray has reached 21 points in one of six games this series. It's also worth noting that he has hit 21 points in just two of 11 matchups against Minnesota since the Rudy Gobert trade.

Murray seems to always rise to the occasion when Denver needs him most, which makes this bet a bit scary. However, based on the game context and injury, fading his point total is the play here.

I would play this down to -140 before transitioning to Murray under 19.5 points.

Pick: Jamal Murray Alt Under 20.5 Points (-135)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Rudy Gobert Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115, DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

Rudy Gobert has been a polarizing figure throughout this entire series, as people have questioned just how impactful his defense has been in defending Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets. However, he can make his presence felt on both sides of the floor.

Gobert has functioned as a floater defensively and gets to grab a few additional rebounds because of it. Also, on the offensive side of the ball, he has been an effective roll man with either Anthony Edwards or Mike Conley. One of the things Denver is giving up to Gobert in his two-man game is the ability to dish. This series he has averaged two assists per game on 3.6 potentials with at least one in each game. It gives a nice floor for this prop with some additional upside as he has had 3, 1, 1, 3, and 2 assists in these games.

As for the PRA, he has an excellent history against Jokić. Over his last 10 head-to-head games, he has exceeded 23.5 PRA in seven of them, including three in a row. This is a winner-take-all Game 7 and Gobert should see plenty of run. I like him to exceed 23.5 PRA.

Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)